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Almost every rental decision in Arizona comes back to one question: will there be enough renters? For decades, population growth has been the state's answer. The latest numbers still point to growth, but the story is more detailed than the familiar line that everyone is moving here.
Statewide growth is slowing, and much of it is shifting to the outer edges of the metro areas. For rental owners in Phoenix, Tucson, and Prescott, those details may matter more than the statewide headline.
Key Takeaways
- Arizona reached 7,623,818 residents on July 1, 2025, adding 67,394 people (about 0.9%), according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates.
- Growth slowed from the prior year, but Arizona still ranked 7th in the nation for numeric gains.
- The fastest growth is on the metro fringes, including Pinal County, Queen Creek, Buckeye, and Marana.
- Census and state estimates for the City of Tucson differ, but both show slow growth inside city limits.
- State forecasters project Arizona could reach about 9.8 million people by 2060.
Arizona's Statewide Growth in 2025
The Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates, released in December 2025, put Arizona's population at 7,623,818 as of July 1, 2025. That was 67,394 more people than a year earlier, according to ABC15's report on the release.
Arizona ranked 7th among states for numeric growth and 8th for percentage growth. Growth slowed across the country, largely because of a sharp drop in net international migration.
- Population, July 1, 2025: 7,623,818 (Census QuickFacts, Vintage 2025)
- One-year gain: 67,394 people, or about 0.9% (Census Bureau, Vintage 2025)
- Growth from April 2020 to July 2025: 6.5% (Census QuickFacts, Vintage 2025)
- Share of growth since 2020 from net migration: roughly 97% (Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity, 2025)
- Residents age 65 and older: more than 19% (Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity, 2025)
For landlords, the migration piece matters most. People who move to a new state often rent first while they learn the area, which is one reason migration-driven markets tend to support rental demand.
Where the Growth Is Happening
The biggest story in the 2025 data is where people are choosing to live. Growth is concentrated on the edges of the Phoenix and Tucson metros, where housing is often newer and more affordable.
These one-year gains come from Census Bureau city estimates reported by the Arizona Daily Star on May 19, 2026:
- Queen Creek: up 8.2%, nearly 6,800 new residents
- Goodyear: up 6.5%
- Marana: up 5.7%, more than 3,500 new residents
- Buckeye: up 5.5%
- Surprise: up 4.6%, more than 7,700 new residents
- City of Maricopa: up 4.6%
At the county level, Pinal County grew 4.6% between 2024 and 2025, the largest gain in Arizona, according to USAFacts' analysis of Census data. Census QuickFacts shows Pinal County's population rose 26.6% from April 2020 to July 2025.
Phoenix: Still Growing, but More Slowly
The Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro added 59,065 people between July 2024 and July 2025, reaching 5,228,938 residents, according to Census metro estimates reported by ABC15. That was the fourth-largest numeric gain of any U.S. metro, though the growth rate slowed to 1.14% from 1.62% the year before.
Inside city limits, growth was much slower. The Census Bureau estimated that the City of Phoenix added just 3,157 residents, about 0.2%. For Phoenix rental owners, that may mean suburban demand stays strongest, while infill properties rely more on nearby jobs, transit, and amenities.
Tucson: A Tale of Two Estimates
Tucson shows why the data source matters. The Census Bureau estimated the City of Tucson at 548,371 residents in 2025, down 2,262 from the year before and up only about 5,773 since 2020 (Arizona Daily Star, May 19, 2026).
The state's own estimate tells a slightly different story. The Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity put Tucson at 557,901 on July 1, 2025, a gain of 682 people, according to the Arizona Capitol Times (December 11, 2025).
Both sources agree on the bigger pattern: the city itself is growing slowly, if at all, while suburbs like Marana grow quickly. For Tucson multifamily owners, that suggests demand may depend more on location, household changes, and moves within the metro than on large population gains.
Prescott and Yavapai County
Yavapai County, home to Prescott and Prescott Valley, had an estimated 253,595 residents on July 1, 2025, according to the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity. OEO projects the county could grow about 17% by 2060, to nearly 298,000 people.
Growth in the Prescott area tends to be steady rather than fast. That kind of market may reward owners who focus on resident retention and year-long leases rather than aggressive rent increases.
What the Long-Term Forecast Says
The Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity's projections show the state growing from about 7.7 million people in 2025 to about 9.8 million by 2060, an increase of roughly 26%. That growth is expected to be uneven across counties:
Projections are estimates, not guarantees, and they can shift with water policy, interest rates, job growth, and migration. You may also notice that state and federal figures differ. For example, the Census Bureau estimated Maricopa County at 4,689,558 on July 1, 2025, while OEO estimated 4,787,790, so we cite each figure to its source rather than treating one as final.
What Population Growth Means for Rental Owners
Population growth can support rental demand, but it does not guarantee higher rents. In the Phoenix area, strong renter demand has recently met heavy new apartment supply, which has kept rents in check, as we explored in our look at the Phoenix multifamily market.
- Opportunity: New arrivals often rent first, which can create a steady flow of new households.
- Opportunity: Fast-growing counties like Pinal and Maricopa may support long-term demand.
- Challenge: Builders follow growth, so new supply can add competition and concessions.
- Challenge: Slower in-migration may weigh on Class C rentals, a risk Marcus & Millichap flagged for Tucson in its 1Q 2026 report.
- Challenge: Flat growth inside Phoenix and Tucson city limits may make location and property quality even more important.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Yes, though growth has slowed. The Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates ranked Arizona 7th for numeric growth and 8th for percentage growth between July 2024 and July 2025.
- The Census Bureau and the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity use different methods and data inputs. Differences of several thousand people for a city, or more for a county, are common. Checking both can help you see the overall trend.
- No. Rents depend on supply as well as demand. When new construction outpaces new renters, rents may stay flat or even fall, even in a growing market.
- OEO projects Pinal County to more than double by 2060, with Maricopa County growing about 27%. Pima County is projected to grow more slowly, at about 5%.
Turning Arizona's Growth Into Smarter Rental Decisions
Population data is one of the best tools for long-term planning, as long as you look past the headline. Where growth is happening, and how fast new supply is arriving, can make a real difference in how your property performs.
Ready to see where your rental fits in Arizona's growth?
At Rosenbaum Realty Group, we help owners across Phoenix, Tucson, and Prescott turn market data into practical pricing and leasing decisions. Request a free rental analysis or contact our team today to see how your property fits into Arizona's changing growth picture.
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